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Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. While not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

During that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance and Settled Debates

In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that forbade re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the central crisis of British politics, a lid that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer provides gains measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which young people can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal involves announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement has been made much harder because his ministers actively diverging from European rules across a range of policy areas, including the environment.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Strategy & Geopolitical Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe faces cultural extinction because of immigration. It includes only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this renders America an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost from the Past

All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an attempt to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger and A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the effect that a short phrase had for him in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.